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Market Potentials to Meet Priority Patient Needs

One of the challenges inhibiting a more unified and coordinated global action in the field of AMR product development incentives is a lack of evidence or data to quantify the need or size of the challenge and therefore the scale of required intervention. To help address this, a Market Analysis Expert Advisory Group (EAG) was established by the Global AMR R&D Hub’s Board of Members in May 2019. The EAG has been tasked to estimate the global market potential for products that they identified as representing some of the greatest unmet medical need for addressing AMR. The EAG membership currently includes 14 members and two ex-officio members (OECD, WHO).

The work of the EAG

Accurately forecasting a global patient burden of drug-resistant infections and an AMR-relevant product’s financial market potential are challenging propositions. Issues include dearth of data, health system heterogeneity, uncertainty in product positioning and uptake together with challenges understanding willingness to pay. While these issues plague all markets for medical products, the prevalence of off-label prescribing and the notable lack of data on incidence and prevalence of drug-resistant infections further complicate this understanding in the field of AMR R&D.

Estimates of a product’s market potential are necessary for many different actors notably public/philanthropic agencies working on access and provision and private companies forecasting potential worldwide revenues, to inform R&D investment decisions years ahead of a product being available.

The EAG will deliver a market analysis report to the Global AMR R&D Hub that estimates the market potential of a number of identified products that will encompass epidemiological (number of potential patients who could benefit) and economic (potential revenues based on market demand) predictions. The products currently identified for the report are:

  1. A therapeutic for MDR Gram-negative bloodstream infections
  2. A therapeutic for MDR Gram-negative infections that cause pneumonia
  3. A rapid diagnostic to determine bacterial vs. other aetiologies
  4. A diagnostic for rapid pathogen identification and resistance testing

Funded by:
Federal Ministry of Health
Federal Ministry of Education and Research